Current Vegas Lines on the 2007 Oscars

• Odds that the broadcast will wrap up on schedule (150-1)
• Odds that Ellen DeGeneres will make a sly reference to the fact that she’s the first openly gay personality to host the Oscars: Right off the top (2-1); Never (3-1); During a commercial break (8-5); The first time the cameras start to linger on Tom Cruise (5-1)
• Deceased star likely to get most applause when the obituary reel is shown: Robert Altman (3-1); Peter Boyle (5-1); Jack Warden (10-1); Glenn Ford (15-1); Jack Palance (2-1); Don Knotts (30-1)
• Odds that the Best Foreign Film winner will say something critical about US foreign policy (3-1)
• Odds that the Best Foreign Film winner will say something complimentary about Hollywood movies (50-1)
• Odds the most long-winded speech will come from: Eddie Murphy (20-1); Martin Scorsese (10-1); Peter O’Toole (6-1); Jennifer Hudson (20-1); Academy President Sid Ganis (Even)
• Most likely political statement made by a winner from the stage: Global warming is an issue that the world must address (3-1); The post-colonial exploitation of Africa by the rich must cease (5-1); I don’t know how I’m going to link my movie to the slaughter in Iraq, but I’m gonna do it anyway (8-5); We should stop insulting the public’s intelligence with this crass promotional gimmick disguised as an awards show (75-1)
• Most likely embarrassing unscripted moment: An inebriated Nick Nolte will lose his place in his teleprompted remarks and fail to extricate himself (6-1); A flop-sweating Billy Bob Thornton will remind the audience that it still isn’t too late to catch The Astronaut Farmer at the multiplex next door (10-1); Ryan O’Neil will rush the stage with a fireplace poker (4-1)
• Most likely embarrassing scripted moment: Host Ellen DeGeneres will jump up and down and claim to be in love with Katie Holmes (9-1); Jennifer Aniston will attempt to kiss Cate Blanchett to publicize her upcoming appearance on Dirt (6-5); Special guest presenter Al Gore will attempt to read his lines (7-2)
• Most unlikely nominated winner: Will Smith (25-1); Rinko Kikuchi (20-1); Judi Dench (15-1); Mark Wahlberg (40-1)
• The elephant in the room that a minor presenter will finally mention: Dreamgirls, a universally well-received but largely black project, wasn’t nominated for Best Picture (2-1) Isn’t it time we stopped awarding an Oscar for “best animated feature”? (15-1) We should have given Scorsese his Director Oscar for Goodfellas so we wouldn’t have to pretend a dog like The Departed is pure gold (3-2); This is the lamest bunch of nominees since The Greatest Show on Earth won Best Picture in 1952 (10-1)
• Odds that Liza Minnelli, freshly divorced from David Gest, will now try and punch out Russell Crowe when ushers attempt to move him into her seat: (20-1)
• Odds that Academy voters will be able to tell Dreamgirls’ three nominated songs apart (7-2)
• Most likely sentimental winner: Eddie Murphy (8-1); Alan Arkin (5-1) Martin Scorsese (2-1) Peter O’Toole (Even)
• Actor least likely to be trusted to present an award: Rip Torn (10-1) Mel Gibson (15-1) Mickey Rourke (35-1) Lindsay Lohan (50-1) Courtney Love (85-1)
• Sascha Baron Cohen is most likely to show up in character as: Borat (8-5) Ali G. (5-1) Gay race-car driver Jean Girard (9-4) Peter O’Toole (8-1)
• Odds that Xenu will arise through a volcano in the Kodak Theater parking lot, spirit Tom Cruise and John Travolta away in a DC-8-shaped rocket ship, and bring history as we know it to an end (14-1)

-Published in the Globe and Mail, March 2007